AAA Projects Year-End Holidays Will See a 3.8 Percent Increase In Travelers
       By: AAA
Posted: 2009-12-17 06:11:25
AAA is projecting 87.7 million Americans will be traveling 50 miles or more away from home during the year-end holidays. This is a 3.8 percent increase from the 84.5 million Americans who traveled during the same Christmas/New Year period one year ago, and is the largest projected increase for any major holiday this year.

The number of travelers by automobile is expected to be 77.7 million in 2009 compared to 74.4 million last year; an increase of 4.4 percent. The number of travelers by air is expected be 4.2 million compared to 4.1 million in 2008; an increase of 2.9 percent. The number of those traveling by "other" means, including, trains, watercraft, buses and multiple-modes of transportation, is expected to be 5.8 million compared to 6.0 million last year, AAA said. Last year, the total number of travelers during the year-end holidays was 84.5 million; a decline of 4.7 percent from 2007.

"More Americans traveling during the winter holidays is another sign consumers' are continuing to grow more confident in their personal financial situations," said AAA's director of Travel Services, Glen MacDonell. "The moderate projected rise in the number of air travelers this holiday period is especially welcome since the airline industry was hit especially hard by the recession."

AAA's projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight. The Lexington, Mass.-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA earlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. For purposes of this forecast the year-end holidays travel period is defined as trips that include travel of 50 miles or more away from home during the period from Wednesday, Dec. 23 to Sunday, Jan. 3. The complete AAA/IHS Global Insight 2009 year-end holidays forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.

Gasoline prices -- while higher -- will not deter holiday travelers, AAA says

Eighty-eight percent of year-end vacationers are expected to travel by automobile, while five percent are projected to go by air. In November, the time when most people make decisions in regards to year-end travel, average gasoline prices were over $.50 more expensive per gallon than they were in November 2008. Despite these higher prices, AAA believes the impact of higher fuel costs on year-end travel will be minimal. This is because the average cost of self-serve regular gasoline remains well-below $3 per gallon, and because prices have been fairly stable since mid-October; staying between $2.60 and $2.70 per gallon on a nationwide average basis.

Average spending will be $1,009 and average distance traveled will be 791 miles

Americans are expected to spend approximately $1,009 per household on travel during the Christmas/New Year period. The largest average share of all spending will be on transportation and transportation-related charges. Approximately 11.6 percent of spending will go toward lodging. Dining will account for 17.6 percent of total holiday spend, while shopping will account for 17.6 percent. Entertainment and recreation expenses will account for 13.1 percent of the average travel budget.

Christmas/New Year travelers will average of 791 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. An estimated forty percent of travelers will journey more than 700 miles round trip. One-quarter (25 percent) of travelers will log between 251 and 700 miles. More than one-third (35 percent) of travelers will travel 250 miles or less round trip.

Airfare and rental car cost to be slightly higher, lodging expense will be lower

According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index -- a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the U.S. for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing -- the lowest average published airfares over the year-end holidays period are expected to increase two percent from last year to an average of $179 per roundtrip ticket. Car rental rates also will increase; up two percent to an average of $50 per day for a mid-size car versus $49 per day last year. Rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to be 10 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $119 per night. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond lodgings will pay 6 percent less than last year; an average of $86 per night. These are the lowest average lodging rates for this time period since 2004.

Holiday Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Global Insight has developed a unique approach to forecasting actual travel that explicitly considers current economic conditions, past holiday travel trends and behavior, and the recent assessment of pre-holiday American travel intentions derived from a survey of 1,350 American households.*

The intentions figures act as a leading indicator, but do not constitute the forecast itself. Instead, travel intentions overlay other key travel drivers along with past trends in an effort to project what Americans will actually do. The approach recognizes Americans do not always behave as they say they will.

The actual travel figures come from the ongoing travel panel database of D.K. Shifflet & Associates, the premier source of American travel volume and behavior. DKSA interviews over 50,000 American households per month in an effort to track trip incidence, composition, behavior, and spending... all after the trips have been taken.

As North America's largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 51 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, the not-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. AAA clubs can be visited on the Internet at AAA.com.

* The first two holiday travel forecasts conducted by IHS Global Insight and AAA (Memorial Day and Fourth of July 2009) utilized an initial nationwide sampling of 2,700 households to collect at least 405 respondents planning a holiday trip. These respondents were interviewed in detail about their intended trips. Beginning with the 2009 Labor Day holiday travel forecast, 1,350 households are being included in the initial survey; however, at least 405 respondents will continue to be interviewed in detail about their intended trips.
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