Global growth will resume in 2010, driven largely by the world's emerging economies, The Conference Board reported today.
Advanced economies' share of world GDP has fallen from two-thirds in 2000 to below 50 percent today and will hit one-third by 2016, according to the inaugural 2010 edition of The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook. China will remain a dominant economic force, but its growth will gradually slow as its transition proceeds to a consumer-driven economy.
"Global growth will resume in 2010, with global output per head returning to pre-crisis levels," said Bart van Ark, chief economist, The Conference Board. "Looking further out, emerging and developing economies will account for a much larger share of the global pie - as much as two-thirds by 2016. And while China will surely be a major force in the unwinding of the crisis, we'll see other emerging markets increasingly fueling global growth."
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2010 projects output growth for major regions of the world economy and the world as a whole for 2009, 2010, and 2011-2016, and takes into account macroeconomic as well as business dynamics such as changes in consumer and labor markets and relative costs. It is built via a wide range of instruments including The Conference Board Total Economy Database for 100-plus countries, Leading Economic Indexes for 10 countries/regions, and exclusive input about the business environment captured from The Conference Board member companies' executives. The Conference Board has long conducted much of the underlying research and has previously published certain findings. This marks the formal launch of an annual Outlook report, which will be released each year via the November edition of the StraightTalk® newsletter and regularly updated online.
The Conference Board annual report on global productivity, published in mid-January, includes a detailed analysis of the drivers of global growth including employment and productivity levels and growth rates for many individual countries.
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