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California Economy Edges Up in May, Reports the Comerica Bank California Economic Activity Index

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2010-07-13 05:31:31     
Comerica Bank

Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index rose one point in May, to a level of 103, following four consecutive months of idling at a level of 102. May's reading is up seven points from the year-ago level and four points above the average for all of 2009. Year-to-date, the Index has averaged 102.

"After stalling over the first four months of the year our Index ticked up in May, to its highest level since December 2009," said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "May marked the third consecutive month of employment growth, with trade, travel, and manufacturing adding strength to the Index. Over the course of the year, California, like the rest of the nation, should see continued job growth to spur a sustainable private sector recovery."

As of this publication, the Index has been reconfigured. Vehicle miles traveled will no longer be a component of the Index, because it is no longer available on a timely basis. Additionally, as of April, the Census Bureau stopped reporting data on shipments of semiconductors. "Therefore, we will now use the broader category-computer and electronic product shipments-to represent activity in the state's tech sector," said Johnson. Finally, to broaden coverage, gasoline production has been added to the Index. "Our newly configured index has a 0.97 correlation with our previously published index over the past 13 years. Also, our newly configured index remains highly correlated with state real GDP," added Johnson. A complete, revised Index history is available upon request.

The California Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100.

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

To receive this index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

Specialized in: Comerica Bank
URL: http://www.comerica.com/
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