The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)(TM) Continues to Rise in October

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)(TM) increased for the second consecutive month. The ETI now stands at 89.3, up 0.7 percent from the revised September figure. The index is down 13.2 percent from a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index has likely turned a corner in September, and the historical relationship between the index and employment suggests that job losses will end in early 2010," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "While layoffs have certainly declined in recent months, we still expect to see employers adding hours to their existing workforce before hiring will strongly increase."

This month's increase in the Employment Trends Index(TM) was driven by positive contributions from four out of the eight components. The improving indicators were Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Temporary Employees, Industrial Production and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index(TM) aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index(TM) include:

* Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
* Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
* Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
* Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
* Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
* Job Openings (BLS)
* Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
* Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index(TM) monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report.

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